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Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Virtual Team Brain Storm Update: Monty Hall

Last week, we looked at the following study:  The Psychology of the Monty Hall Problem: Discovering Psychological
Mechanisms for Solving a Tenacious Brain Teaser.

Like many of you, I loved watching “Let’s Make a Deal” when Monty Hall hosted years ago.  What fun it was to cheer on the lucky, crazy dressed person that was chosen from the audience!  If you were like me, you sat in your own living room, yelling at the TV what you thought they should do! “Go with door 3!” Whenever the contestant chose the wrong door, we felt a sense of loss with them.

This study looks at what is known as “The Monty Hall Problem” (or three-door problem). In summary, this is what the  study found:  The Monty Hall Problem is a famous example of a “cognitive illusion,” often used to demonstrate people’s resistance and deficiency in dealing with uncertainty. The authors of this study formulated the problem using manipulations in 4 cognitive aspects, namely, natural frequencies, mental models, perspective change, and the less-is-more effect. These manipulations combined led to a significant increase in the proportion of correct answers given by participants. Until now, all experimental studies have had similar results: The vast majority of participants think that switching and staying are equally good alternatives and decide to stay.  This study found that switching is indeed better.

For our weekly Brain Teaser, I used the following question:
There are three houses built exactly the same. One is filled with cotton, the other with wood, and the third with iron. One day an arsonist sets them all on fire. The sound of sirens was growing louder at the scene. People were screaming. Which house did the ambulance try to put the fire out at first?  The answer was: Ambulances do not put out fires. 

This answer stumped everyone on the team that replied, except for Tim B., our massage therapist here at The Franciscan Center. Good job Tim!

Our next Brain Teaser is coming shortly!  Have a great week…Kelly, Team Captain

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